The West and the Emerging Rest

By Prajwal Baral, Kathmandu: Predicting future political events is often the hardest task, as the underlying events and facts may change at any point in time  altering the trajectory of future events. However, political scientists around the world often undertake the challenging task of analyzing and interpreting global events to gain a clearer understanding of the evolving world order.

In the period of the Cold War, the Sino–Soviet split, Nixon’s visit to China, and the fall of the Berlin Wall demonstrated how previous predictions about the global order were changed by these events. New realities of the time redirected the trajectory of the future, leading to unforeseen outcomes of a new horizon.

The period of the Cold War was a challenging period for political scientists as the emergence of a bipolar world and the public diaspora centered on competing ideologies made it difficult to foresee new roots of social order that could have changed the global discourse. Political events were largely framed within the larger context of the Cold War, and smaller, impactful events were often overshadowed.

However, after the fall of the Soviet Union, political scientists all around the world began to analyze newly established facts and events regarding lessons from two devastating world wars and the period of the Cold wWar. Just before the fall of the Berlin Wall, American political scientist Francis Fukuyama emerged on the global stage with his article “The End Of History,” reflecting on the triumph of liberal democracy as the final form of political organization upon the defeat of fascism and communism.

Contrastingly, in his 2018 book, Identity: the Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment, Fukuyama revises his earlier ideas, recognizing that identity politics poses a significant challenge to liberal democracy and there is more left in it. Fukuyama, in his earlier work, failed to foresee smaller emerging events and trends that were shaping under the bigger picture of the Cold War that went unnoticed.Before Francis Fukuyama’s realization, another prominent political scientist, Samuel P. Huntington,closely analyzed the period of the Cold War and the democratic transitions occurring in newly independent countries after the fall of the Soviet Union. Samuel Huntington identified several key phases in the history of democratization in his renowned work, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century, published in 1991.

The first wave began in 1828 with the expansion of democratic suffrage in the United States. This was followed by the first reverse wave, which started with Mussolini’s rise to power in Italy. The second wave of democratization began with the Allied victory in World War II, leading to the independence of many colonized countries and their attempts to establish democratic systems. However, by the early 1960s, the hope for continued democratic progress began to fade as the second reverse wave emerged, characterized by a shift towards one-party rule and military dictatorships in many countries. The third wave of democratization began with the fall of the dictatorship in Portugal but did not follow a linear path and faced several setbacks too.

However, while observing the process of democratization, Huntington noticed that it still had a long way to go as distinct cultural norms, which varied from place to place, made it challenging for many countries to fully adopt democratic practices. For democracy to take root and thrive, there must be strong political, economic, and cultural foundations upon which Western universalism was often imposed on many countries.

In his influential book The Clash of Civilizations, Samuel Huntington predicts that the future world order will be defined by clashes between different civilizations rather than by conflicts over haves and have nots or ideological differences. The primary division will be between the West, which represents universalism, and the rest of the world, which embraces cultural relativism, not only in the east. 

The growing influence of Confucianism in China, India’s revitalization of its cultural regions and cultural affiliation, and the strong political and cultural identity of the Arab world are key elements shaping this clash of civilizations in the emerging global order.While identifying the clash of civilizations as a central issue related to identity, Huntington points out that civil unrest and potential civil wars could be significant challenges for countries, as cultural and social groups seeks to assert their identities, both within and beyond their national boundaries.

While we may never witness a full-scale clash of civilizations as envisioned by Samuel Huntington, it is evident that countries and blocs representing distinct cultural identities and civilization norms are making significant strides in economic progress and posing substantial economic challenges to the West. The lens of economic progress may provide a more effective framework for understanding world affairs in the 21st century with regard to the principle of civilization.

Most theorists and political analysts have traditionally framed global dynamics as a West vs. East dichotomy. However, this view is incomplete. The decline in Western superiority is not solely related to Eastern hegemony; it reflects a broader shift beyond the Cold War’s bipolar world order. In the 21st century, the concept of “West vs. the Rest” has become more relevant, as Western universalism faces significant challenges from diverse global perspectives.

Chinese Civilization

The Western ideas of private property, freedom, individualism, and state power stand in contrast to Chinese perspectives. In China,Confucian philosophy emphasizes a familial approach, adherence to the authority’s superiority, and the central role of the state, which reflects a reliance on collective values, respect for hierarchical structures, and a strong role for the state in guiding and maintaining societal order.

Earlier, China struggled to achieve economic success, but in the 21st century, it has emerged as a flourishing economy, presenting a counter-assertion to the Western bloc. Since 1978, China has averaged a GDP growth rate of 9%  and lifted 800 million people out of poverty, which is attracting many other countries for its development model and fostering its relationship and trade with China. As the rising power of China challenginges and threatens the existing ruling power, the Thucydides trap looks inevitable.

Indian Civilization

After the period of economic liberalization in the early 1990s, India announced its mark on the global stage and started cooperating with many other countries while strictly maintainingstrategic autonomy. The growing influence of India in maintaining regional hegemony has been a serious concerns  for US influence. India strategically partners with the US and other countries to counterbalance China‘s growing influence; however, it doesn’t completely align with the Western bloc. As India marches towards its economic growth and becomes the 5th largest economy in the world, India is likely to assert its own cultural, and philosophical identity to the world rather than comply with Western ideas.Reemergence of cultural relativism all around the world and economic growth of nations above undermines the concept of an upcoming bipolar world. The future of the world order still looks unpredictable, but a multipolar world order is shaping with the growth of countries that represent a different cultural identity other than US universalism.

In the 21st century where nationalism, identity and culture have gained relevance, positing the idea of West versus the East or China versus the US is not complete at all. The US may seek to counterbalance China but US hegemony will face significant challenge all around the world.  

 (Baral is a graduate of Nepal Law Campus with an interest in international law and international relations.)