Kathmandu: On January 9, a day before his floor test at the House of Representatives, Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Center) Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal met Nepali Congress (NC) president Sher Bahadur Deuba after getting the indication that Nepali Congress was supporting him during the vote of confidence.
Prachanda told the media that the purpose of his meeting was to request Deuba for support during the floor test. Many, however, did not believe him since Prachanda had already secured the majority required to become the Prime Minister, and support from Congress was not needed.
The next day, Nepali Congress, unconditionally, gave the vote of confidence to Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Probably, CPN-UML sensed some “design.” This is why KP Oli said if Congress was supporting the government in exchange for some trade-off, it would not materialize. Oli heavily criticized Nepali Congress for being an opportunist party. He delivered a long speech at parliament in which he highlighted the role of opposition in a democracy.
Twenty days later, it appears that the spillover effects of the Prachanda-Deuba meeting have started taking shape. According to Nepali Congress leaders, the existing alliance will fall apart by the time of the presidential elections.
Political developments over the last few days indicate that the current coalition government comprising Maoist Center, CPN-UML, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Rastriya Swatantra Party, and Janamat Party is headed toward a shaky future. Here are some indications.
First, Maoist Center and CPN-UML stand at loggerheads over the candidates for the presidential election. While UML has been consistently saying that UML and Maoist Center had a gentleman’s agreement to concede the post of the president to UML, Maoist Center leaders have dismissed it outright and have been rooting for national consensus–the idea which Nepali Congress leaders like Ram Chandra Paudel are advocating for in recent times. Maoist leaders have started saying that the entire political situation has taken a new course after NC’s support to the Prime Minister in a floor test. This new development should be considered while selecting the next President, according to Maoist leaders. As a result, Maoist leaders have not given word to elect a UML candidate as the president through the UML is its strongest coalition partner.
Second, Maoist Center and UML have shown open differences over whether to reappoint Rabi Lamichhane of RSP as the Home Minister. Rabi Lamichhane had to reacquire citizenship after the Supreme Court on Friday declared his citizenship invalid, rendering his post of lawmaker null and void in the process. UML looks keen on reinstating Lamichhane as the Home Minister, but Maoist Center is not only non-committal but also clearly unwilling. On Sunday, CPN-UML general secretary Shankar Pokharel told Nepal Live, the sister publication of Nepal Live Today, that the case was filed against Lamichhane with the intention to change the current coalition.
Third, Rabi Lamichhane has issued an ultimatum to the Prime Minister that if he is not given the Home Ministry by this evening, his party will pull support from the government. The RSP is insistent on this demand, while Maoist Center looks adamant.
Fourth, Maoist Center itself was divided from the beginning. General secretary Dev Gurung and powerful leader Barshaman Pun wanted a communist alliance while Janardan Sharma and some others were in favor of perpetuating the then Democrat-Communist alliance. Baburam Bhattarai, who vacated his electoral constituency for Prachanda, has also started influencing Prachanda. Some of his recent comments show he wants to keep the possibility of an alliance with the Nepali Congress open. He has also openly advocated the idea of a national consensus government, something UML chair KP Oli appears to loathe.
Fifth, a week after the PM’s floor test and soon after the cabinet expansion, Janamat Party leader CK Raut, who is an important factor in the current coalition, made his displeasure public. The ruling class has bypassed Madhes-based parties and bulldozed its decision, wrote Raut on Twitter. “Madhesh will stand against this.”
The current coalition comprises 79 MPs from UML, 32 from Maoist Center, 20 from RSP, 14 from RPP, and 6 from Janamat Party, apart from some independent lawmakers. The moment RSP pulls out, it will fall short of support from 20 MPs, which could totally change the equation of the current coalition.
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